Use uncertainty-revealing rendering when certainty is not warranted
For uncertainty communication in quantitative displays, use uncertainty-revealing rendering on charts to improve trust and mitigate false objectivity for readers.
- purpose:refine
- basis:empirical
- operator:uncertainty
- lever:encoding
- communication:credibility
- quality:trust:use
- aesthetic:style:use
advice
Uncertainty-revealing rendering
Add rendering that visibly signals tentativeness when the data should be questioned. For example, use sketchy drawing styles or explicit uncertainty-conveying renderings instead of a clean minimalist presentation when uncertainty, missingness, or bias is part of the message.
reason
Why visible uncertainty helps
A polished, exact-looking chart can make uncertain data feel more authoritative than it is. Visual signals of tentativeness can slow overconfident reading and make viewers more willing to question the evidence.
Mechanism: Clean minimalist rendering can project objectivity and certainty, while sketchy or uncertainty-revealing styling makes uncertainty part of what the reader perceives.
Evidence: The paper argues that clean layouts can grant unwarranted authority and objectivity to data, while sketchy and uncertainty-conveying renderings can increase willingness to critique and appreciation of uncertainty (Bertini et al., 2020).
context
Use when the chart should not look fully settled
- User Goal: Communicate uncertainty, tentativeness, or the need for critique.
- Task: Uncertainty communication rather than only fast value extraction.
- Data: Uncertain, missing, biased, or otherwise not fully settled.
- Chart Setting: A quantitative display that might otherwise look overly clean and authoritative.
- Audience: Readers who might otherwise take the chart as objective truth.
- Success Criterion: Readers notice uncertainty and remain willing to question the display.
exceptions
Do not use when fast exact reading is the whole job
Break it when: The display is meant for fast, exact reading of settled values and uncertainty is not part of the message. Why: The extra visual difficulty can slow decoding without adding needed information.
costs
Costs of uncertainty-revealing rendering
Sacrifice: You give up some speed and precision in immediate value reading. Risk: Blind use can make already-clear data harder to decode. Mitigation: Apply the treatment when the chart should explicitly communicate uncertainty or invite critique.
mistakes
Common certainty mistake
Mistake: Keeping a clean minimalist rendering when uncertainty is central to the story. Why it fails: The chart can look more objective and settled than the data deserves.
check
Check whether the chart overstates certainty
Failure Sign: Uncertain data looks fully settled and authoritative. Quick Check: Remove the title and caption and ask whether the marks themselves still signal uncertainty. Stronger Test: Compare a clean version and an uncertainty-revealing version; if the clean version looks more certain than the data warrants, the original is masking uncertainty.
fix
Fix the rendering
- Apply sketchy styling to the uncertain marks.
- Add explicit uncertainty-conveying rendering where values are missing or uncertain.
- Replace a purely clean minimalist treatment that hides the tentativeness of the data.